Review of the Cold-Rolled and Galvanized Steel Strip Market in 2025 and Outlook for 2026
Compared to 2024, 2025 was a relatively stable year for the steel market. In the Central China market, the maximum price difference for cold-rolled steel coils throughout the year was 590 yuan/ton, a reduction of nearly half compared to the previous year. The price level also shifted significantly downwards, from 4261 yuan/ton in 2024 to 3948 yuan/ton in 2025, a decrease of 313 yuan/ton, or about 7%. Due to government subsidies stimulating consumption, the manufacturing sector was booming, and the proportion of direct supply from steel mills and specialty steel increased, resulting in a corresponding decrease in the supply of general-purpose steel in the market. Market inventory remained below normal levels for a long time this year, and inventory pressure was not significant. In addition, the price difference between cold-rolled and galvanized steel coils recovered somewhat, but then fell back to within 50 yuan/ton in the fourth quarter. The following will review 2025 and provide a forecast for 2026:
Looking at the price trends over the past two years, the performance is largely consistent, and can be divided into three stages: decline, rebound, and narrow-range fluctuation. Firstly, neither year saw a strong start or a “golden March and silver April” market, but instead experienced a prolonged decline. In 2024, prices fell from the beginning of the year to September, a cumulative decrease of 1150 yuan/ton, followed by a strong but short-lived rebound at the end of September, with a cumulative increase of 740 yuan/ton in just one week, after which prices quickly fell back, and fluctuated within a narrow range for the last two months. In 2025, prices fell from the beginning of the year to June, a cumulative decrease of 590 yuan/ton, a significantly smaller decrease than the previous year. However, the rebound continued throughout July, with a cumulative increase of 330 yuan/ton, and has maintained a narrow-range fluctuation from August to the present, with a fluctuation range of only 100 yuan/ton in the past five months. Due to the continuous decline in the first half of the year, the overall price level was bound to shift downwards, with 2025 being approximately 7% lower than 2024.
Throughout the year, the price trends of cold-rolled and galvanized steel coils were basically consistent, but the price difference between the two has been in an abnormal state for several years. The normal price difference is around 300 yuan/ton, with the highest price difference in 2025 being 200 yuan/ton and the lowest being -150 yuan/ton. The price difference remained negative until May, with an average price difference of only 28 yuan/ton for the entire year. This clearly shows that cold-rolled steel coils performed better than galvanized steel coils this year. On the one hand, the automotive industry performed better than the home appliance industry this year, especially the new energy vehicle sector, where recent monthly production and sales data have exceeded those of traditional gasoline vehicles, and cold-rolled steel coils are widely used in the automotive industry. On the other hand, new galvanized steel coil resources came online in the Central China market this year, with relatively lower prices, which had a certain restraining effect on the prices of established resources, leading to fierce market competition. Meanwhile, the cold-rolled steel coil market has not experienced long-term inventory pressure. This combination of factors has led to the current situation, where the price difference between galvanized and cold-rolled steel coils is only 40 yuan/ton.
The trend of social inventory of cold-rolled steel coils in the Central China market has been basically consistent over the past two years, peaking after the start of the year. In 2024, it was 25,000 tons, and in 2025, it was 16,600 tons, a decrease of 8,400 tons, a decrease of 33.6%; the annual average in 2024 was 14,100 tons, and in 2025 it was 12,100 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons, a decrease of 14.2%. This shows that the overall inventory pressure this year is not significant. Since a few years ago, L Steel Mill has been gradually reducing its supply of general-purpose cold-rolled steel coils to the Central China market. The monthly agency volume has decreased from 2,000 tons to 1,500 tons, and then to 1,200 tons. Whether the agency volume will continue to decrease in 2026 is still unknown. Furthermore, it is difficult to deliver the full quantity, so the actual market arrival volume is only two to three thousand tons per month, which is one of the reasons why market inventory has remained low for a long time. However, this situation may change in 2026. In December 2025, new cold-rolled steel coil resources came online in the Central China market, with a supply of 5,000-10,000 tons to the local market. The market structure may change in the future.
Judging from the price adjustment data of steel mills and the market this year, steel mills have the upper hand. During the 12 months of price adjustments, steel mills adjusted prices higher than the market for 7 months. The cumulative price adjustments also showed a similar trend, with steel mills cumulatively lowering ordering costs by 320 yuan/ton throughout the year, while the market saw a cumulative decrease in selling prices of 381 yuan/ton. Traders reported that settlements were consistently at a loss, and it was difficult to maintain profitability solely through selling raw coils; profitability was only possible through processing and value-added services. Of course, the magnitude of price adjustments is not the only criterion for determining profitability; it also needs to be judged based on the traders’ sales pace and delivery situation.
II. Market Outlook for 2026
In terms of supply, firstly, for galvanized steel coils, before Hunan Chengyu Resources came online, the market’s main circulating resources already included brands such as Baosteel Qingshan, Shanli, Guocheng, Panhua, and Shenlong, and the market was already relatively saturated. With the launch of new resources, price competition has become increasingly fierce. Currently, Hunan Chengyu’s monthly output is 30,000-35,000 tons. Although not all resources are supplied to the Central China market, more than one-third is consumed there. Due to its significant price advantage, the supply structure has changed significantly after more than half a year, and the market share of other brands has decreased to varying degrees. Next, for cold-rolled steel coils, Hunan Chengyu’s cold-rolled resources came online in December 2025, with a planned monthly output of 15,000 tons. Due to the relatively low prices in the Wuhan market recently, it is difficult to supply there. Currently, it is mainly supplied to the Changsha and Nanchang markets. Like galvanized steel coils, it also has a price advantage, and the supply structure of the cold-rolled steel coil market may also change significantly in 2026.
In terms of demand, regarding winter stockpiling, currently, major steel mills in the Central China market have not issued relevant policies for cold-rolled and galvanized steel coils, and the demand for cold-rolled thin plates is less affected by seasonality. Traders and end-users have little intention of winter stockpiling. However, policy support remains strong. In 2025, the national subsidy fund invested 300 billion yuan, driving increased consumption, especially in manufacturing. In 2026, the national subsidy fund will continue to increase. Cold-rolled and galvanized steel coils are widely used in manufacturing, so this will also stimulate demand to a certain extent. Overall, market demand may have increased due to government subsidy policies, but in recent years, with steel mills undergoing transformation or adding new production lines, a situation of oversupply has gradually emerged, leading to increasingly intense price competition.