{"id":1526,"date":"2025-12-30T10:12:20","date_gmt":"2025-12-30T10:12:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bomissteel.com\/?p=1526"},"modified":"2026-05-12T05:28:01","modified_gmt":"2026-05-12T05:28:01","slug":"china-steel-price-forecast-2026-q1-update","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bomissteel.com\/tr\/china-steel-price-forecast-2026-q1-update\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7in-\u00e7elik-fiyat-tahmini-2026-1.-\u00e7eyrek-g\u00fcncellemesi"},"content":{"rendered":"

Son G\u00fcncelleme: 29 Ocak 2026 \u2013 \u00c7in Demir ve \u00c7elik Birli\u011fi'nden (CISA) al\u0131nan en son 1. \u00e7eyrek verilerini i\u00e7erir.<\/em><\/p>\n

2026 \u00c7in \u00c7elik Fiyat Tahmini: Yeniden Yap\u0131lanma ve S\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 Aral\u0131kta Dalgalanma<\/h2>\n

\u00c7in \u015fu anda \u00e7elik end\u00fcstrisinde kritik bir yeniden yap\u0131lanma s\u00fcrecinden ge\u00e7iyor ve bu durum, 2026 \u00e7elik fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n seyrini k\u00fcresel end\u00fcstriyel zincirler ve finans piyasalar\u0131 i\u00e7in odak noktas\u0131 haline getiriyor. Sekt\u00f6r, kontrols\u00fcz ve devasa b\u00fcy\u00fcme d\u00f6neminden geri \u00e7ekilerek yeni zorluklarla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kal\u0131yor: karbon n\u00f6trl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, arz-talep dengesinin yeniden d\u00fczenlenmesi ve y\u00fcksek kaliteli kalk\u0131nmaya ge\u00e7i\u015f.<\/p>\n

\u00d6nde gelen akademik kurulu\u015flar ve sekt\u00f6r uzmanlar\u0131na g\u00f6re, \u00c7in \u00e7elik fiyatlar\u0131nda 2026 y\u0131l\u0131nda, belirli bir aral\u0131kta seyreden dalgalanmalarla karakterize edilen m\u00fctevaz\u0131 bir toparlanma g\u00f6r\u00fclecektir. Bu piyasa davran\u0131\u015f\u0131, farkl\u0131 sekt\u00f6rler aras\u0131nda belirgin yap\u0131sal farkl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, "s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket ve destekli a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket" ile tan\u0131mlanmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

1. Zay\u0131f Arz-Talep Dinamikleri ve Sekt\u00f6rel Farkl\u0131la\u015fma<\/h3>\n

2026 \u00e7elik fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 etkileyen temel fakt\u00f6r, arz fazlas\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n kademeli olarak azalmas\u0131d\u0131r; ancak piyasadaki temel \u00e7eli\u015fkiler tamamen \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmeyecektir.<\/p>\n

\u201c\u0130ki Kademeli\u201d Talep Senaryosu:<\/strong>
\nMetalurji Sanayi Planlama ve Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc'n\u00fcn (MIPRI) tahminlerine g\u00f6re, genel \u00e7elik t\u00fcketiminde hafif bir daralma bekleniyor ve 2026'da y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda 1,01 milyon ton azalarak 800 milyon tona d\u00fc\u015fecek. Ancak bu k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, piyasadaki ciddi bir yap\u0131sal de\u011fi\u015fimi gizliyor:<\/p>\n

    \n
  • B\u00fcy\u00fcme Motorlar\u0131 (\u00dcst D\u00fczey \u00dcretim):<\/strong> T\u00fcketimi art\u0131rmaya ve ileri imalata y\u00f6nelik politika m\u00fcdahaleleriyle desteklenen otomotiv \u00e7eli\u011fi talebinin 4,41 milyon ton artarak 66,7 milyon tona ula\u015fmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Gemi in\u015fa sanayinde ise 6,71 milyon tonluk bir art\u0131\u015f (17,6 milyon tona) g\u00f6r\u00fclecek. Ev aletleri (+3,81 milyon ton) ve motosikletler (+5,21 milyon ton) sekt\u00f6rlerinde de sa\u011flam bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/li>\n
  • S\u00fcr\u00fckleyici Sekt\u00f6rler (Geleneksel Sanayiler):<\/strong> Geleneksel olarak toplam talebin neredeyse yar\u0131s\u0131ndan sorumlu olan in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn, bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131lki 12,91 TP3T'lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan, 4,11 TP3T daha azalarak 384 milyon tona gerilemesi bekleniyor. Konteyner sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ise a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda ve 23,81 TP3T'lik bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015famas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Enerji (-2,71 TP3T) ve h\u0131rdavat \u00fcr\u00fcnleri (-3,71 TP3T) sekt\u00f6rleri de b\u00fcy\u00fcmeden daralmaya ge\u00e7ecek.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Arz Taraf\u0131 K\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131:<\/strong>
    \nPolitika kontrol\u00fc kat\u0131 kalacak ve yaln\u0131zca \u201ctoplam hacim kontrol\u00fc ve yap\u0131sal optimizasyon\u201da odaklanacakt\u0131r. \u00c7elik Sanayi \u0130stikrarl\u0131 B\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma Plan\u0131 (2025-2026), yeni kapasite eklenmesini a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a yasaklamakta ve optimum olmayan \u00fcretim hatlar\u0131n\u0131n kapat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in farkl\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f d\u00fczenleyici politikalar kullanmaktad\u0131r. \u00c7elik fabrikalar\u0131 istikrarl\u0131 kar marjlar\u0131 nedeniyle g\u00f6n\u00fcll\u00fc olarak \u00fcretimlerini azaltmaktan \u00e7ekinirken, genel ham \u00e7elik \u00fcretiminin 2026'da hafif\u00e7e d\u00fc\u015fmesi ve fiyat temellerine k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filim sa\u011flayan \u201czay\u0131f bir denge\u201d olu\u015fturmas\u0131 beklenmektedir.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
    \u00c7eyrek<\/th>\nHRC (S\u0131cak Haddelenmi\u015f Bobin) Tahmini<\/th>\n\u0130n\u015faat Demiri Tahmini<\/th>\nBa\u015fl\u0131ca Etkenler<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
    2026 Q1<\/strong><\/td>\n$580 \u2013 $610 \/ Ton<\/td>\n$550 \u2013 $570 \/ Ton<\/td>\n\u00c7in Yeni Y\u0131l\u0131 Sonras\u0131 Stok Yenileme<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    2026 2. \u00c7eyrek<\/strong><\/td>\n$620 \u2013 $650 \/ Ton<\/td>\n$590 \u2013 $620 \/ Ton<\/td>\nAltyap\u0131 Sezonunun Zirvesi<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

    2. D\u0131\u015f Etkenler: Maliyet Yeniden Yap\u0131land\u0131rmas\u0131 ve Politika K\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131<\/h3>\n

    Arz ve talebin \u00f6tesinde, hammadde maliyetleri ve sanayi politikalar\u0131, 2026'da fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n iki temel belirleyicisi olacak. Hammadde maliyet yap\u0131s\u0131 dramatik bir de\u011fi\u015fimden ge\u00e7iyor.<\/p>\n

      \n
    • Demir cevheri:<\/strong> Simandou projesi ve di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck maden sahalar\u0131n\u0131n kapasitelerini art\u0131rmas\u0131yla arz \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde artacakt\u0131r. Bu artan arz\u0131n, y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalama fiyatlar\u0131 121 TP3T d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrerek yakla\u015f\u0131k 1 TP4T90\/ton seviyesine indirmesi bekleniyor. \u00dcretim maliyetlerindeki bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, de\u011firmen karl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na hayati destek sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n
    • Kok K\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fc ve Kok:<\/strong> \u00d6te yandan, kok k\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fcne olan talep ve fiyatland\u0131rma, i\u00e7 g\u00fcvenlik k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131 ve a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc esnekli\u011fi s\u0131n\u0131rlayan gerileme kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 politikalar taraf\u0131ndan s\u0131k\u0131 bir \u015fekilde desteklenerek istikrarl\u0131 kalacakt\u0131r. Kok fiyatlar\u0131 (kok k\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fc trendlerini takip eder) muhtemelen ton ba\u015f\u0131na 1.300 ile 1.900 yuan aras\u0131nda dalgalanacak ve kok \u015firketlerini k\u00e2r bask\u0131s\u0131 alt\u0131nda tutarak ba\u015fa ba\u015f noktas\u0131na yak\u0131n bir seviyede tutacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<\/ul>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      Last Updated: January 29, 2026 – Includes latest Q1 data from the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) 2026 Chinese Steel Price Forecast: Restructuring and Range-Bound Volatility China is currently experiencing a critical restructuring of its steel industry, making the trajectory of 2026 steel prices a focal point for global industrial chains and financial markets. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1527,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","rank_math_title":"Steel Prices in China 2026 Q1: Will Costs Rise or Fall?","rank_math_description":"Stay ahead with our China steel price forecast for Q1 2026. We analyze the impact of production capacity controls, real estate demand, and the new export licensing policy on steel costs. Get the latest insights to optimize your 2026 procurement strategy.","rank_math_canonical_url":"","rank_math_focus_keyword":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1526","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blog"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bomissteel.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1526","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bomissteel.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bomissteel.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bomissteel.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bomissteel.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1526"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/www.bomissteel.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1526\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6639,"href":"https:\/\/www.bomissteel.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1526\/revisions\/6639"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bomissteel.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1527"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bomissteel.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1526"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bomissteel.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1526"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bomissteel.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1526"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}