{"id":1526,"date":"2025-12-30T10:12:20","date_gmt":"2025-12-30T10:12:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bomissteel.com\/?p=1526"},"modified":"2026-05-12T05:28:01","modified_gmt":"2026-05-12T05:28:01","slug":"china-steel-price-forecast-2026-q1-update","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bomissteel.com\/az\/china-steel-price-forecast-2026-q1-update\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7in-polad-qiym\u0259t-proqnozu-2026-c\u0131 ilin-1-ci r\u00fcb\u00fc-yenil\u0259m\u0259si"},"content":{"rendered":"

Son Yenil\u0259nm\u0259: 29 Yanvar 2026 \u2013 \u00c7in D\u0259mir v\u0259 Polad Assosiasiyas\u0131n\u0131n (CISA) son 1-ci r\u00fcb m\u0259lumatlar\u0131n\u0131 ehtiva edir<\/em><\/p>\n

2026-c\u0131 il \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn \u00c7in Polad Qiym\u0259t Proqnozu: Yenid\u0259nqurma v\u0259 \u00c7e\u015fidl\u0259 Ba\u011fl\u0131 D\u0259yi\u015fk\u0259nlik<\/h2>\n

\u00c7in haz\u0131rda polad s\u0259nayesind\u0259 kritik bir yenid\u0259nqurma prosesind\u0259n ke\u00e7ir v\u0259 bu da 2026-c\u0131 il polad qiym\u0259tl\u0259rinin qlobal s\u0259naye z\u0259ncirl\u0259ri v\u0259 maliyy\u0259 bazarlar\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn \u0259sas n\u00f6qt\u0259y\u0259 \u00e7evrilm\u0259sini t\u0259min edir. S\u0259naye, karbon neytrall\u0131\u011f\u0131, t\u0259l\u0259b-t\u0259l\u0259b balans\u0131n\u0131n yenid\u0259n \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclm\u0259si v\u0259 y\u00fcks\u0259k keyfiyy\u0259tli inki\u015fafa ke\u00e7id kimi yeni \u00e7\u0259tinlikl\u0259rl\u0259 \u00fczl\u0259\u015fm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn k\u00fctl\u0259vi, n\u0259zar\u0259tsiz b\u00f6y\u00fcm\u0259 d\u00f6vr\u00fcnd\u0259n geri \u00e7\u0259kilir.<\/p>\n

Apar\u0131c\u0131 akademik t\u0259\u015fkilatlar\u0131n v\u0259 s\u0259naye m\u00fct\u0259x\u0259ssisl\u0259rinin fikrinc\u0259, \u00c7in polad qiym\u0259tl\u0259ri 2026-c\u0131 ild\u0259 diapazonla m\u0259hdudla\u015fan d\u0259yi\u015fk\u0259nlikl\u0259 xarakteriz\u0259 olunan orta d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259d\u0259 dir\u00e7\u0259li\u015f g\u00f6r\u0259c\u0259k. Bu bazar davran\u0131\u015f\u0131 m\u00fcxt\u0259lif sektorlar aras\u0131nda n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 \u00e7arpan struktur f\u0259rql\u0259ri il\u0259 yana\u015f\u0131, "m\u0259hdudla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f y\u00fcks\u0259li\u015f v\u0259 d\u0259st\u0259kl\u0259n\u0259n eni\u015f" il\u0259 m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n edilir.<\/p>\n

1. Z\u0259if T\u0259klif-T\u0259l\u0259b Dinamikas\u0131 v\u0259 Sektor F\u0259rqliliyi<\/h3>\n

2026-c\u0131 il polad qiym\u0259tl\u0259rin\u0259 t\u0259sir ed\u0259n \u0259sas amil, bazardak\u0131 fundamental ziddiyy\u0259tl\u0259rin tamamil\u0259 h\u0259ll olunmayaca\u011f\u0131na baxmayaraq, t\u0259klif t\u0259zyiqinin t\u0259dric\u0259n azalmas\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n

"\u0130ki M\u0259rh\u0259l\u0259li" T\u0259l\u0259b Ssenarisi:<\/strong>
\nMetallurgiya S\u0259nayesi Planla\u015fd\u0131rma v\u0259 T\u0259dqiqat \u0130nstitutu (MIPRI) t\u0259r\u0259find\u0259n 2026-c\u0131 ild\u0259 polad istehlak\u0131n\u0131n illik m\u00fcqayis\u0259d\u0259 1,0% azalaraq 800 milyon tona d\u00fc\u015f\u0259c\u0259yi proqnozla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131lan \u00fcmumi polad istehlak\u0131n\u0131n c\u00fczi bir azalmas\u0131 g\u00f6zl\u0259nilir. Lakin bu ki\u00e7ik azalma bazarda k\u0259skin struktur d\u0259yi\u015fikliyini gizl\u0259dir:<\/p>\n

    \n
  • B\u00f6y\u00fcm\u0259 M\u00fch\u0259rrikl\u0259ri (Y\u00fcks\u0259k S\u0259viyy\u0259li \u0130stehsal):<\/strong> \u0130stehlak\u0131n t\u0259kmill\u0259\u015fdirilm\u0259si v\u0259 qabaqc\u0131l istehsal\u0131n t\u0259\u015fviqi \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn siyas\u0259t m\u00fcdaxil\u0259l\u0259ri il\u0259 avtomobil polad\u0131na t\u0259l\u0259bat\u0131n 4,4% (66,7 milyon tona q\u0259d\u0259r) artaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6zl\u0259nilir. G\u0259miqay\u0131rma s\u0259nayesind\u0259 6,7% (17,6 milyon tona q\u0259d\u0259r) art\u0131m m\u00fc\u015fahid\u0259 olunacaq. M\u0259i\u015f\u0259t texnikas\u0131 (+3,8%) v\u0259 motosikletl\u0259rin (+5,2%) da m\u00f6hk\u0259m art\u0131m ya\u015fayaca\u011f\u0131 proqnozla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131l\u0131r.<\/li>\n
  • S\u00fcr\u00fckl\u0259m\u0259 Sektorlar\u0131 (\u018fn\u0259n\u0259vi S\u0259nayel\u0259r):<\/strong> \u018fn\u0259n\u0259vi olaraq \u00fcmumi t\u0259l\u0259bat\u0131n t\u0259xmin\u0259n yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 t\u0259min ed\u0259n tikinti s\u0259nayesinin daha 4,1% azalaraq 384 milyon tona d\u00fc\u015f\u0259c\u0259yi proqnozla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131l\u0131r (\u0259vv\u0259lki ild\u0259ki 12,9% azalmadan sonra). Konteyner s\u0259nayesi h\u0259ddind\u0259n art\u0131q g\u0259rginlikl\u0259 \u00fczl\u0259\u015fir v\u0259 23,8% azalmas\u0131 g\u00f6zl\u0259nilir. Enerji (-2,7%) v\u0259 aparat m\u0259hsullar\u0131 (-3,7%) da art\u0131mdan daralmaya ke\u00e7\u0259c\u0259k.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    T\u0259chizat T\u0259r\u0259find\u0259ki M\u0259hdudiyy\u0259tl\u0259r:<\/strong>
    \nSiyas\u0259t n\u0259zar\u0259ti s\u0259rt qalacaq v\u0259 ciddi \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 "\u00fcmumi h\u0259cm n\u0259zar\u0259ti v\u0259 struktur optimalla\u015fd\u0131rmas\u0131"na y\u00f6n\u0259l\u0259c\u0259k. Polad S\u0259nayesinin Sabit Art\u0131m \u0130\u015f Plan\u0131 (2025-2026) yeni istehsal g\u00fccl\u0259rinin \u0259lav\u0259 edilm\u0259sini a\u00e7\u0131q \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 qada\u011fan edir v\u0259 suboptimal istehsal x\u0259tl\u0259rind\u0259n \u00e7\u0131xma\u011fa m\u0259cbur etm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn f\u0259rqli t\u0259nziml\u0259yici siyas\u0259tl\u0259rd\u0259n istifad\u0259 edir. Polad zavodlar\u0131 sabit m\u0259nf\u0259\u0259t marjalar\u0131 s\u0259b\u0259bind\u0259n istehsal\u0131 k\u00f6n\u00fcll\u00fc olaraq azaltmaqda t\u0259r\u0259dd\u00fcd ets\u0259l\u0259r d\u0259, \u00fcmumi xam polad istehsal\u0131n\u0131n 2026-c\u0131 ild\u0259 bir q\u0259d\u0259r azalaca\u011f\u0131 v\u0259 qiym\u0259t fundamentallar\u0131na ki\u00e7ik bir yuxar\u0131 meyl t\u0259min ed\u0259n "z\u0259if tarazl\u0131q" yaradaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6zl\u0259nilir.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
    R\u00fcb<\/th>\nHRC (\u0130sti Yay\u0131lm\u0131\u015f Rulon) Proqnozu<\/th>\nArmatur (Tikinti) Proqnozu<\/th>\n\u018fsas T\u0259siredici Faktorlar<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
    2026-c\u0131 ilin 1-ci r\u00fcb\u00fc<\/strong><\/td>\n$580 \u2013 $610 \/ Ton<\/td>\n$550 \u2013 $570 \/ Ton<\/td>\n\u00c7in Yeni \u0130lind\u0259n Sonra Yenid\u0259n Mallar\u0131n Toplanmas\u0131<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    2026-c\u0131 ilin 2-ci r\u00fcb\u00fc<\/strong><\/td>\n$620 \u2013 $650 \/ Ton<\/td>\n$590 \u2013 $620 \/ Ton<\/td>\nPik \u0130nfrastruktur M\u00f6vs\u00fcm\u00fc<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

    2. Xarici h\u0259r\u0259k\u0259tverici q\u00fcvv\u0259l\u0259r: X\u0259rcl\u0259rin yenid\u0259n qurulmas\u0131 v\u0259 siyas\u0259t m\u0259hdudiyy\u0259tl\u0259ri<\/h3>\n

    T\u0259l\u0259b v\u0259 t\u0259klifd\u0259n \u0259lav\u0259, xammal x\u0259rcl\u0259ri v\u0259 s\u0259naye siyas\u0259ti 2026-c\u0131 ild\u0259 qiym\u0259t d\u0259yi\u015fk\u0259nliyinin iki \u0259sas h\u0259r\u0259k\u0259tverici q\u00fcvv\u0259si olacaq. Xammal\u0131n maya d\u0259y\u0259ri strukturu k\u0259skin \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 d\u0259yi\u015fm\u0259kd\u0259dir.<\/p>\n

      \n
    • D\u0259mir filizi:<\/strong> Simandou layih\u0259si v\u0259 dig\u0259r b\u00f6y\u00fck m\u0259d\u0259n sah\u0259l\u0259ri istehsal g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc art\u0131rd\u0131qca t\u0259chizat xeyli artacaq. Bu artan t\u0259chizat\u0131n illik orta qiym\u0259tl\u0259ri 12% azaldaraq t\u0259xmin\u0259n $90\/ton s\u0259viyy\u0259sin\u0259 endir\u0259c\u0259yi g\u00f6zl\u0259nilir. \u0130stehsal x\u0259rcl\u0259rinin bu azalmas\u0131 d\u0259yirman\u0131n g\u0259lirliliyin\u0259 m\u00fch\u00fcm d\u0259st\u0259k ver\u0259c\u0259k.<\/li>\n
    • Koksla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 K\u00f6m\u00fcr v\u0259 Kola:<\/strong> \u018fksin\u0259, koksla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 k\u00f6m\u00fcr\u0259 t\u0259l\u0259bat v\u0259 qiym\u0259tl\u0259r sabit qalacaq v\u0259 daxili t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259sizlik m\u0259hdudiyy\u0259tl\u0259ri v\u0259 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 elastikliyi m\u0259hdudla\u015fd\u0131ran anti-involusiya siyas\u0259tl\u0259ri t\u0259r\u0259find\u0259n s\u0259rt \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 d\u0259st\u0259kl\u0259n\u0259c\u0259k. Koksla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 k\u00f6m\u00fcr trendl\u0259rini izl\u0259y\u0259n koks qiym\u0259tl\u0259rinin ton ba\u015f\u0131na 1300 il\u0259 1900 yuan aras\u0131nda d\u0259yi\u015fm\u0259si ehtimal\u0131 var ki, bu da koksla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 \u015firk\u0259tl\u0259ri m\u0259nf\u0259\u0259t bax\u0131m\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0259tin v\u0259ziyy\u0259td\u0259 saxlay\u0131r v\u0259 b\u0259rab\u0259rlik x\u0259ttin\u0259 yax\u0131n v\u0259ziyy\u0259td\u0259 qal\u0131r.<\/li>\n<\/ul>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      Last Updated: January 29, 2026 – Includes latest Q1 data from the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) 2026 Chinese Steel Price Forecast: Restructuring and Range-Bound Volatility China is currently experiencing a critical restructuring of its steel industry, making the trajectory of 2026 steel prices a focal point for global industrial chains and financial markets. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1527,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","rank_math_title":"Steel Prices in China 2026 Q1: Will Costs Rise or Fall?","rank_math_description":"Stay ahead with our China steel price forecast for Q1 2026. We analyze the impact of production capacity controls, real estate demand, and the new export licensing policy on steel costs. Get the latest insights to optimize your 2026 procurement strategy.","rank_math_canonical_url":"","rank_math_focus_keyword":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1526","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blog"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bomissteel.com\/az\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1526","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bomissteel.com\/az\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bomissteel.com\/az\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bomissteel.com\/az\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bomissteel.com\/az\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1526"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/www.bomissteel.com\/az\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1526\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6639,"href":"https:\/\/www.bomissteel.com\/az\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1526\/revisions\/6639"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bomissteel.com\/az\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1527"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bomissteel.com\/az\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1526"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bomissteel.com\/az\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1526"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bomissteel.com\/az\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1526"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}